A Troubling Resurgence: Extremism's Return in Bangladesh
India's strategic community is on high alert, concerned about a potential resurgence of extremist forces in Bangladesh and the rising tide of hostile rhetoric from Islamist militant groups directed at India. This development has sparked alarm and a sense of déjà vu among experts.
Shantanu Mukharji, a former National Security Adviser to Mauritius and a renowned strategic affairs expert, warns of a "dangerous reversal of hard-won gains against militancy." Recent incidents, including mob attacks on individuals and diplomatic missions, are believed to be orchestrated by radical Islamist groups, a trend that has caught the attention of observers.
But here's where it gets controversial: the release of radicalized extremist prisoners and their subsequent reorganization has created conditions reminiscent of the 1990s and early 2000s, when Bangladesh served as a staging ground for transnational jihadist networks. Mukharji highlights the concerning regrouping of these groups after their release last year.
Bangladesh's history with terrorism came into sharp focus in the late 1990s, marked by the devastating bomb attack on a secular cultural event organized by Udichi in Jessore. This incident, which killed 10 and injured over 100, signaled the beginning of a dark era of militant violence. The threat escalated in the early 2000s, culminating in the deadly grenade attack on an Awami League rally in Dhaka in 2004, and again in 2016 with the assault on the Holey Artisan Bakery, where extremists targeted foreigners.
This time, secular cultural institutions like Udichi and Chayanaut have once again become targets of mob violence. Unfortunately, eyewitnesses claim that police and security forces have largely been passive observers, a worrying development.
"It not only raises the risk of internal violence in Bangladesh but also renews cross-border threats to India," Mukharji emphasizes. India's concerns about cross-border terrorism linked to Bangladesh are deeply rooted and shaped by the shifting dynamics of militant networks and regional politics.
During the 1990s and early 2000s, several insurgent groups operating in India's Northeast, including factions of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), maintained camps and logistical bases inside Bangladesh. Indian assessments also included militant Islamist groups like Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and Ansar-Ul-Bangla, which had roots in Bangladesh and were linked to bombings and plots targeting cities like Kolkata and Varanasi.
Security experts believe that political patronage in Bangladesh at the time allowed these networks to operate freely, and there are fears that "this can happen again." Indian officials are particularly worried about the potential re-establishment of links between Bangladeshi militant groups and extremist organizations in Pakistan and West Asia.
Mukharji points to previous instances where militants trained in Bangladesh later appeared in conflict zones like Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. He warns that a similar pattern could emerge amid the current instability.
Security analysts in New Delhi are concerned about the immediate threat of attacks within India or against Indian interests in Bangladesh, especially after a series of assaults on Indian diplomatic missions. These incidents highlight the fragile security environment, Mukharji argues, but India must resist the urge to adopt a purely defensive posture.
"Expanding people-to-people ties between Indians and Bangladeshis is essential to counter radical ideologies and preserve the broader relationship," Mukharji says. "Engagement is key to defeating extremism at its roots, but it must not compromise security. The safety of Indian personnel and institutions is non-negotiable."
For New Delhi, Bangladesh's political and societal developments are of utmost importance, impacting India's border security, regional stability, and the balance of influence in South Asia. As extremist networks show signs of revival, the challenge lies in containing the threat without eroding the social and diplomatic ties that have historically defined the relationship.
What are your thoughts on this complex issue? Do you think India's concerns are justified, or is there a different perspective to consider? Feel free to share your insights and engage in a thoughtful discussion in the comments below!
